Mavericks vs. Pacers prediction, odds, line, start time: 2023 NBA picks, March 27 best bets by proven model

Gainbridge Fieldhouse hosts a matchup between the Dallas Mavericks and the Indiana Pacers on Monday evening. Dallas aims to stop a four-game losing streak, with the Mavericks entering at 36-39 this season. Indiana is 33-42 overall and 19-17 in home games. Tyrese Haliburton (ankle) and Myles Turner (back) are questionable for the Pacers, with Buddy Hield (illness) ruled out. Luka Doncic is available after having his 16th technical foul, which would have triggered a one-game suspension, rescinded by the NBA.

Caesars Sportsbook lists Dallas as a 4-point favorite, and tip-off is scheduled for 7 p.m. ET. The total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, or the over/under, is 238.5 in the latest Mavericks vs. Pacers odds. Before making any Pacers vs. Mavericks picks, you’ll want to see the NBA predictions and betting advice from the proven computer model at SportsLine.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past four-plus seasons. The model enters Week 24 of the 2022-23 NBA season a stunning 70-36 on all top-rated NBA picks this season, returning more than $2,900. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Mavs vs. Pacers and just locked in its picks and NBA predictions. You can visit SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Here are the NBA lines and trends for Pacers vs. Mavs:

  • Mavericks vs. Pacers spread: Mavericks -4
  • Mavericks vs. Pacers over/under: 238.5 points
  • Mavericks vs. Pacers money line: Mavericks -178, Pacers +150
  • DAL: The Mavericks are 2-8-1 against the spread with no rest
  • IND: The Pacers are 21-15 against the spread in home games
  • Mavericks vs. Pacers picks: See picks at SportsLine
Featured Game | Indiana Pacers vs. Dallas Mavericks

Why the Mavericks can cover 

The Mavericks are facing a porous Indiana defense that provides avenues for opponents to attack. Indiana is the worst defensive rebounding team in the NBA, grabbing only 68.6% of missed shots by opponents, and the Pacers yield 15.4 second-chance points per game. The Pacers are also in the bottom five of the NBA in both free throw prevention (25.6 attempts per game) and assist prevention (26.3 per game) on defense. Overall, Indiana is giving up 116.6 points per 100 possessions, and Dallas enters the evening with impressive offensive numbers.

The Mavericks are in the top eight of the NBA in scoring 115.7 points per 100 possessions, and Dallas has strong shooting metrics. That includes 37% from 3-point range and 57% from inside the arc, with Dallas making more than 15 3-pointers per contest. The Mavericks also average 25.7 free throw attempts per game.

Why the Pacers can cover

Indiana’s offense is electric in key areas. The Pacers lead the NBA with 18.4 fast break points per game this season, and Indiana is in the top six of the league in assists per game (26.8) and assist percentage (64.1%). The Pacers make 13.7 3-pointers per game, a top-eight figure in the league, and Indiana is soundly above-average in offensive rebound rate (28.4%) and free throw accuracy (79.2%). Indiana also has a rest advantage in this game, and Dallas has notable defensive issues. 

The Mavericks are giving up 115.7 points per 100 possessions this season, and opponents shoot 48.6% from the field against Dallas. The Pacers also have the edge when it comes to turnover creation defensively. Indiana forces more than 15 turnovers per game, including 7.8 steals per contest, while Dallas averages only 13.3 takeaways per game on defense.

How to make Pacers vs. Mavericks picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning Over on the total, projecting 245 combined points. The model also says one side of the spread hits in over 50% of simulations. You can only get the pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Mavericks vs. Pacers? And which side of the spread hits over 50% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks, and find out.